The letter formally informing the EU of the UK’s intention to leave was delivered in Brussels today at 1.25pm. It puts charmingly upfront Venus in Aries exactly on the MC conjunct a 10th house Aries Sun, so definitely pro-active. There’s also a divisive/rebellious Uranus Moon Mercury in the 10th trine Saturn – which could be positive since it points to organizational creativity and the ability to manage resources, as well as to promote new systems which are not unduly disruptive.
On the downside there’s a gridlocked and bitter Mars in Taurus trine Pluto suggesting it will be an uphill struggle with hostility spilling out at times. And the Uranus Moon Mercury opposing Jupiter square Pluto hinting at a conflict between differing philosophical viewpoints, and a fight for control and the last word. With Saturn square the Sun which moves to exact by transit from March 2018, which is somewhat early for the separation – unless it’s a withdrawal into no deal. Indeed tr Saturn will square Venus MC earlier than that in January 2018 – setbacks and chilly relations.
The Sun itself is anyway square an unyielding Saturn/Pluto midpoint and opposition an argumentative Mars/Node. And Pluto is square the Sun/Moon midpoint which is a fair description of a difficult, long-drawn out and aggravated divorce. And the MC (time being spot on) is square the head-in-the-clouds Jupiter/Neptune, which suggests harm through impracticality or thoughtlessness.
[See posts: March 20 and 24th.]
Useful piece in today’s Spectator which I probably shouldn’t put in huge chunk but haven’t time to precis. Not just the UK contribution to EU budget, it’s also cross border trade.
.Just consider the corporate interests of Europe. A free-trade deal with Britain is certainly in the interests of Spain and Italy, who run a trade surplus with Britain. For Germany, which exports €50 billion more to the UK than Brits buy from Germans, it’s a no-brainer. Cars, chemicals and machinery — these strong export sectors for Germany are all at risk if Britain copies EU tariffs on cars and imposes its own regulation on hazardous chemicals. And French farmers and winemakers will lobby just as hard: they don’t want to see British duties on beaujolais and camembert. More economically significantly, the French government has strong invested interests in the British nuclear and transport sectors, including rail and automotive.
The Brits often tease the French for their protectionism, but the instinct to protect companies makes the case for a free trade deal. With big investments like High Speed 2, French companies would want to make sure they can sell at good terms to their clients on the other side of the channel. And for the Dutch, with Europe’s largest trading port in Rotterdam, keeping tariffs at zero is important to maintain their advantage as a hub for Britain’s maritime trade. The EU may behave like a wounded beast, but Europe’s businesses are pretty strong — and determined to lobby hard for free trade.
For other parts of Europe, the concern is people: Poland’s priority will be to defend the rights of the 900,000 Poles in the UK — many of them sending money back home. Estonia’s chief interest will be to keep Britain as a leader for Europe’s security. The last of 800 troops from 5th Battalion The Rifles settle in Estonia this month —easing Estonian nerves and underlining the value of having Britain as an ally.’
This is a non-astrological thought. My impression is that quite a few who voted to remain have taken a good look at Juncker and co and decided that out would be more palatable than in, despite the disruptions that will inevitably have to be lived through. There’s also a slight undertone of excitement about ‘a change’ what a lark.
Also no one knows what the end result will be. A fair few EU countries will lose out heavily – Germany, Spain and Poland – if the deal is too punitive towards the UK. They’ll lose exports and in the case of Poland UK benefits which flow back via workers in the UK into their families in Poland. But there again commonsense never had much to do with the EU. And the French, for instance, always allergic to the UK, have a vengeful temperament which is perfectly capable of shooting themselves in the foot if not actually cutting off their foot just to make a point. And for France and Germany especially the EU was always more about striving for a peaceful Europe after two destructive world wars, than just a trade set up.
If past experience is anything to go by, it’ll come to a death and disaster, doomsday scenario and at five seconds to midnight, something will get cobbled together.
My gut feeling is that it was a vote against free movement of people. I think the idea that any EU citizen who can afford a Ryanair flight (£10-£20) can land in the UK and immediately claim all the rights of a British citizen (and in some cases more rights) was frankly not workable.
“Also no one knows what the end result will be. A fair few EU countries will lose out heavily – Germany, Spain and Poland – if the deal is too punitive towards the UK. They’ll lose exports and in the case of Poland UK benefits which flow back via workers in the UK into their families in Poland.”
Oh, you wait until the EU27 start having to work a budget out without the UK’s net contributions of about £6-10 billion per year. Then there will be a battle royale between the net contributors (Germany and the Scandinavian countries), who do not want to increase their share of the payments & the net benefiting countries (primarily Poland and the Visegard countries, not to mention Greece), who don’t want any cuts to the EU funding. I think the UK can capitalise on these divisions, by offering to continue to make some contributions to the EU budget in exchange for a favourable trade deal.
“And the French, for instance, always allergic to the UK, have a vengeful temperament which is perfectly capable of shooting themselves in the foot if not actually cutting off their foot just to make a point.”
The French are past all understanding. I am biased towards Germany and the Scandinavian countries because at the end of the day, they are practical, pragmatic and realistic, while the French and their allies (Belgium and Luxembourg) are so ideological they can’t see the wood for the trees.
“And for France and Germany especially the EU was always more about striving for a peaceful Europe after two destructive world wars, than just a trade set up”
France and Germany have a history going back at least a millennium (think Charlemagne’s empire), not unlike the UK and Ireland. And yet see where the UK and Ireland ended up.
“If past experience is anything to go by, it’ll come to a death and disaster, doomsday scenario and at five seconds to midnight, something will get cobbled together.”
I agree. Any agreement will come down to the wire. It won’t be the eleventh hour, it will be five seconds to midnight when a hastily cobbled agreement will be agreed.
IF the “exports” you’re referring to include Scotland and Ireland but both voted Remain, then I’m not seeing how the EU comes out a loser. Why would either Scotland or Ireland (but especially Ireland) remain in the “UK” when they have nothing to gain and everything to lose?
I’ve read only briefly that there’s a possible Brexit Cancel Clause in the works. Does anyone hv knowledge of this?
It is unclear as to whether the notice given by the UK to the EU under Article 50(2) is revocable or not. The text of the Article states nothing about revocation, primarily because, like Article 72 of the 1977 USSR constitution (which also gave Soviet republics the right to leave), it was never meant to be actually used. Lord Kerr, the (ironically) British author of the Article, had designed it to be used by a dictator taking over an EU country and wanting to leave it, not for his own country.
The Lib-Dems and ardent Remainers are working on the basis that it is and that if the final deal is unpalatable (which it is bound to be, as concession must be made in any negotiations), they, working through either Parliament or through public opinion (possibly even a second referendum), can get the government to withdraw the notice, thus leaving the UK in the EU, but with a very bad taste in the mouth for both the UK and EU.
The UK government and EU Commission are treating the notice as irrevocable. Not much point into putting effort into the negotiations if it can all be undone by a withdrawal of the notice. besides, the UK government does not believe that the public will will have changed by that time.
Some Remainers have filed suit in the Irish courts on this issue, planning to escalate it to the European Court of Justice, which is the only body that can give a definitive ruling on the matter. https://fullfact.org/law/why-there-brexit-court-case-ireland/
Text of Article 50 : http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html
Hi Marjorie,
Given that freedom of movement in the EU was the only major cause of Brexit, do you think that the EU will reflect on this? Is it possible that the UK will remain in an EU minus freedom of movement? That would be a sweet spot for me.
2 points:
Venus conj. 10H Sun in Aries is still Rx so not exactly proactive.
Uranus Moon Mercury, to me, in the 10H trining Saturn suggests too much over thought. Erratic thinking that becomes somber.